1. Given that neither Miami nor Memphis have had a particularly impressive offensive start to the season and that both teams still have quality defensive players and records to back them up, it would have been realistic to enter this matchup anticipating something akin to a rock war.

It turns out that’s what we received.

The majority of the HEAT’s strategy stayed in the middle zones, with a lot of free throws added in, even though they started off shooting the ball brilliantly to take a double-digit edge. While Miami found a little more of a cushion, Memphis, who doesn’t have many downhill attackers remaining, was forced to rely on three-pointers when they could get them. 

Luke Kennard, in particular, made three straight to put Memphis within a possession. On the one hand, Miami had an offensive rating of 105.9, yet they were ahead eight at the half. Memphis, on the other side, was just behind eight and had their own offensive rating of 92.0.

A few minutes into the third quarter, Memphis made a comeback, but Miami’s jumpers, which at that point were hitting over half of their threes and Bam Adebayo was stumbling into any mid-range shot he wanted, continued to fall to keep them ahead. 

The game didn’t feel any smoother despite those percentages, though, as the pebbles continued to fall, Miami’s placement was a little bit more cunning, and the HEAT committed a couple more mistakes than usual while Desmond Bane was having trouble finding his shot. After a putback and one by Jaren Jackson Jr., the score was still only one point going into the fourth quarter.

After Memphis took an early four-point lead, Adebayo’s mid-range shooting tied the score shortly after. Later in the fourth, a 9-1 HEAT run put some distance between them as Jimmy Butler and Adebayo alternated in securing a basket from Bane (15 points on 4 of 16 shots). The margin soon grew to 10 points following a pick-six theft by Jaime Jaquez Jr. Adebayo would make more visits to the free-throw line after that. It appeared like a straightforward game from there, but with 35 seconds remaining, an 8-0 run by Memphis pulled them within three. Luckily, as Memphis scrambled to force a turnover, Jaquez Jr. (11 points on five shots) scored an open corner three, and the HEAT won 108-102.

2.Adebayo and Jackson Jr. haven’t spoken much over the years, but because they’re both equally skilled big men who frequently compete for defensive awards, they’ve developed a small on-court rivalry that’s hard to miss unless you watch each player closely enough. This year, even in a more laid-back preseason match, the two exchanged possessions directly attacking one other. It was the same tonight. Both players seemed to be trying a little too hard in the opening half, as neither of them made many of their initial set of shots.

The latter part was distinct. With the exception of one excellent driving and one hook shot, Jackson Jr.’s 28 points came from just 18 shots during the game as Adebayo swatted efforts from both him and Bane on key fourth-quarter plays. Memphis’ strategy, which included Bismack Biyombo on Adebayo at times, was intriguing because it allowed Miami’s center players to give up a lot of mid-range space that was soft, comfortable, and lightly contested, as if Adebayo was still figuring out his offensive package in 2021–2022. After those initial misses, Adebayo simply continued to move into open chances and make them, going 8 of 14 on non-rim two-pointers. Adebayo played with force in the other areas, drawing early fouls that led to a decline, a couple rebounding fouls in the bonus, and a brawl with Jackson Jr. He oddly chose to front the pass rather than relying on his own length, earning 16 (making 14) trips to the line in the post. After that, there was a real, late post on Jackson Jr. that culminated in Adebayo making a turnaround jump shot.

Adebayo scored 30 points on 15 shots and 11 rebounds, but the HEAT did not have a fantastic offensive night despite Adebayo’s jumpers and the threes dropping at a good rate—just 107 points per 100 overall. Memphis obviously opted to stop Adebayo in his previous two years of play, but the offensive player that Adebayo is now is confident and complete.

3. The main story of the evening was Tyler Herro, who late in the first quarter landed on Jackson Jr.’s foot, rolling his ankle, going directly to the locker room, and eventually being declared out of the game.

While we won’t speculate on injuries, Erik Spoelstra’s short-term remedy was to start Duncan Robinson in the starting lineup and move Dru Smith into the rotation. We’ll have to wait and watch if that is the course of action taken in the event that Herro misses time. 

After all, who takes up the utilization left by a player who uses close to thirty percent of the time determines the other half of the decision tree, not who gets more minutes. It was a little bit of everyone tonight: Haywood Highsmith put the ball on the floor against a bending defense, Jimmy Butler took over for stretches, Kyle Lowry, one of the few viable pull-up threats, made deep shots when the shot clock called for it. Josh Richardson also took a few more shots with the bench unit. Since Lowry (17 points on 11 shots, 11 rebounds, and 9 assists) is the team’s most natural ballhandler and seasoned creator, that’s probably how it would appear in games Herro misses—a little bit more from everyone, and maybe a little bit more from him. Remember from a few years ago? Lowry carried the same weight when Adebayo was sidelined for a month due to a thumb injury.